Recently, market analysis firm Ampere Analysis released its latest industry report, forecasting the rumored PS6 and the next-generation Xbox console, codenamed Project Helix, set to debut in 2028. If these traditionally performance-upgraded consoles launch at $1,000, the adoption of next-gen hardware will suffer a major setback. Combined sales of both consoles in their first five years could drop by up to 38% compared to the同期 performance of the PS5 and Xbox Series X/S.
The report estimates that if the $1,000 price point is maintained, the market size for PlayStation and Xbox console games and services by 2031 will shrink by $3.4 billion compared to a $700 pricing scenario—a 12% drop. The losses caused by high hardware prices will ripple through the entire platform ecosystem.
The root cause of pricing pressure stems from the semiconductor market, where the AI industry is seizing memory production capacity, driving up prices for LPDDR memory and storage chips. Leaked information indicates that the bill of materials for the PS6 is already close to $960, not including assembly, logistics, and marketing costs, putting immense pressure on Sony's pricing strategy. With the PS5 Pro's market price already rising to $900, there is widespread concern in the industry that $1,000 will become the baseline price for next-generation consoles.
Ampere Analysis offers two solutions to break the deadlock. The first is to delay the console launch until after 2028, extending the current generation's lifecycle while waiting for component costs to fall. The second is to stick to the 2028 release window, relying on increased hardware subsidies, expanded monetization models, digital content strategies, and optimized distribution channels to lower prices. However, this approach may have side effects, such as raising subscription service fees.
On the Xbox front, CEO Asha Sharma has publicly stated that average players can hardly afford game consoles costing over a thousand dollars. Project Helix is exploring "disruptive new business models." Rumors suggest this device will be positioned as a hybrid PC-console unit, with possibilities such as subscription-bundled consoles and installment plans to lower the entry barrier for players. However, hardware subsidies and new monetization models are likely to raise concerns among players about subscription price hikes and content restrictions.