Gears of War: E-Day will launch day-one on Game Pass, and Rhys Elliott, an analyst at Alinea Analytics, believes this may "offset" a significant portion of the game's potential revenue. Elliott recently released a report analyzing E-Day's initial Steam sales, the impact of Game Pass on the game's commercial performance, and the possibility of the game launching on PS5 in the future.
According to Elliott's data, Gears of War: E-Day has already sold over 120,000 copies on Steam, generating more than $7 million in revenue. The game officially launches on October 6, though players who purchase higher-tier editions can access it as early as October 1. Data shows that E-Day's current Steam sales are more than double those of Halo: Combat Evolved Anniversary during the same period. However, Elliott believes that at the current sales pace, E-Day is unlikely to break 1 million copies sold on Steam in the future.
Meanwhile, Elliott pointed out that "most of the revenue" Gears of War: E-Day generates on Xbox may be cannibalized by Game Pass. Of course, joining Game Pass could also attract more subscribers to the service, so looking solely at the game's unit sales does not fully reflect its commercial value.
Microsoft has actually begun removing some major titles from Game Pass, possibly due to the impact on direct sales revenue. For example, Activision, under Microsoft, no longer launches new Call of Duty titles day-one on Game Pass; Call of Duty: Modern Warfare III, released this October, won't join until fall 2027. Xbox CEO Sharma also previously indicated that Microsoft might consider adopting a "windowed" release model for more games in the future, meaning generating revenue through direct sales first before adding them to Game Pass later.
Microsoft acknowledged back in 2023 that adding games to Game Pass does indeed "cannibalize" direct sales of full-priced copies to some extent. However, in some cases, entering Game Pass can conversely help boost game sales.
Microsoft once placed heavy bets on Xbox Game Pass, investing billions of dollars to acquire numerous studios in hopes of attracting subscribers by continuously providing content to the service. However, Xbox CEO Asha Sharma has already admitted that Microsoft's big gamble on Game Pass did not achieve the expected results. She stated, "Our core business has weakened, while we have added more teams, invested more money, and spent more time, hoping for better results in the end."
Elliott has also previously stated that Gears of War: E-Day and Clockwork Revolution were effectively treated as "sacrifices" due to their insistence on Xbox console exclusivity. Although both titles will launch on PC, neither currently has a PS5 version.
In an interview with GameSpot, Elliott further stated that Microsoft can no longer succeed in the console market, and continuing to rely on exclusive games to drive Xbox console sales will not change this situation.
He believes that the traditional Xbox console business has effectively reached its end, yet Microsoft still needs to maintain investment in this market until the company completes its transition to other business directions. "The Xbox console era is over, and it has been for some time. There's no way to turn that ship around now. However, they still need to show commitment to the console business until the transition is complete and growth is regained."
Elliott also pointed out that console-exclusive titles like Gears of War can hardly drive Xbox Series X sales anymore. He stated that the past model of relying on exclusive games to boost hardware sales has lost its meaning, because Xbox's current user base is not large enough to generate sufficient hardware demand, while manufacturing consoles itself incurs costs far higher than other hardware. Additionally, these games eventually launch on Steam.
Elliott described Gears of War: E-Day and Clockwork Revolution as "works that sacrificed economic benefits to gain player recognition," rather than products aimed solely at profitability.
In the report, Elliott also addressed rumors that Microsoft canceled the PS5 version of Gears of War: E-Day. He argued that Microsoft should not have done so, as releasing on PS5 would bring in "much-needed additional revenue."
Although E-Day will not launch simultaneously on PS5, Elliott predicts that the game may still eventually come to Sony consoles.
There was indeed clear evidence previously suggesting that a PS5 version of E-Day existed. Microsoft later denied canceling the PS5 version at the last minute but did not directly deny that a PS5 version had ever existed.
More interestingly, Microsoft executive Aaron Greenberg previously stated that Gears of War: E-Day was not an Xbox timed exclusive. However, Greenberg also said in 2021 that Starfield was not an Xbox timed exclusive, yet the game eventually launched on PS5. Therefore, there are still many questions surrounding Microsoft's current statements about future game release plans.