The 26th China International Industry Fair opened in Shanghai on October 12. At the Integrated Circuit Summit held that afternoon, Yin Zhiyao, Chairman and General Manager of AMEC, delivered a keynote speech, issuing a warning about the current AI investment frenzy.
Yin Zhiyao, known as the father of Chinese etching machines, stated that while AI is currently a hot topic discussed at almost every conference, there is a potential for an AI bubble that requires careful attention. He reviewed the annual fluctuation curve of global semiconductor industry capital expenditure from 1984 to 2026, highlighting its extreme volatility.
Capital expenditure in the semiconductor industry is directly linked to equipment procurement, with 70% to 80% of corporate capital spending used for purchasing equipment. Yin Zhiyao pointed out that industry capital expenditure can increase by 100% in one year, drop by 30% in another, and even experience consecutive declines.
Yin Zhiyao analyzed two reasons for the dramatic fluctuations. First, each boom cycle is often driven by a single product, from electronic watches, video games, PCs, and the internet to smartphones. The next cycle may be driven by AI, but it has not fully arrived yet. Second, the impact of the global macroeconomic environment means that once an economic crisis occurs, pressure will transmit up the industrial chain.
Discussing the industry landscape, Yin Zhiyao judged that industry consolidation is an inevitable trend. Compared to the United States, which has only dozens of local companies remaining after multiple rounds of consolidation, China has a large number of semiconductor equipment enterprises, conservatively estimated at least 500 and potentially close to 1,000.
If this pattern holds, only dozens of domestic equipment manufacturers may survive, meaning that 90% of vendors will be eliminated.
Using a naval battle as a metaphor, Yin Zhiyao stated that if opponents are aircraft carriers and cruisers while we are scattered small boats, we cannot win this competition. He believes that leading domestic companies need to transform from single-product firms into platform-based companies, possessing capabilities in etching, thin film deposition, and metrology/inspection to provide customers with complete solutions.
Yin Zhiyao also introduced AMEC's development plans. Over the next three to five years, AMEC plans to cumulatively develop 100 types of specialized equipment, with a total R&D investment of 13 billion yuan. By 2030, the overall coverage rate of integrated circuit equipment is expected to rise to over 60%, with the coverage rate for new architecture chip equipment aiming to exceed 70%.