GTA6 may break the series' revenue record during its initial launch phase. Third-party predictions suggest that pre-orders could reach 25 million copies at launch, corresponding to revenue of about $2 billion, surpassing the $1 billion Grand Theft Auto V achieved in three days.
GTA6 is scheduled to launch on PS5 and Xbox Series X|S on November 19, with the base edition priced at $80. Sensor Tower tracking data estimates that as of October 13, the game had approximately 6.08 million pre-orders, generating about $594 million in revenue, with PS5 accounting for 74% and Xbox Series X|S for 26%. Karl Kontus from the agency predicts that pre-orders could rise to 25 million by launch, though this figure is merely a third-party forecast.
Take-Two has not yet released actual pre-order data. Head Strauss Zelnick only stated that pre-order performance significantly exceeded international market expectations, while emphasizing that pre-orders can still be canceled and that disclosing raw numbers directly could mislead investors.
For reference, Grand Theft Auto V generated $800 million in 24 hours and $1 billion in three days, with cumulative sales now exceeding 230 million copies. Red Dead Redemption 2 generated $725 million in its first weekend, with cumulative sales over 87 million copies; Fallout 4 shipped 12 million copies on its first day, with sales exceeding $750 million.
GameSpot reports:
After years of development, and perhaps more publicity than any other game, GTA6 will launch on PS5 and Xbox Series X|S on November 19. Predicting it will be a huge commercial success is arguably one of the safest bets anyone can make.
But just how big will the scale of this game's release be? If GTA6 truly meets expectations, which records can it break?
Records
The previous GTA game, Grand Theft Auto V released in 2013, was an instant hit. It earned $800 million within 24 hours of launch and surpassed the $1 billion mark within three days. Even after a decade, the game remains a sales powerhouse, with over 230 million copies sold and counting.
Rockstar's latest game, Red Dead Redemption 2 (released in 2018), generated $725 million in its opening weekend and has sold over 87 million copies, placing it among the top five best-selling games of all time.
Besides Rockstar, Bethesda's role-playing game Fallout 4, released in 2015, was also a huge success, selling 12 million copies on its first day alone and generating over $750 million in sales.
In summary, GTA6 is expected to break the following records:
Grand Theft Auto V: $800 million in 24 hours, $1 billion in three days
Red Dead Redemption 2: $725 million in opening weekend box office
Fallout 4: $750 million in revenue on launch day
GTA6 faces a huge challenge: it needs to match or even surpass Rockstar's previous games and Fallout 4. But if Sensor Tower's prediction of 25 million pre-orders at launch is correct—or close to it—it should easily exceed Grand Theft Auto V's launch sales.
One advantage GTA6 has over previous games is its higher price point. The base game of GTA6 is priced at $80, whereas Grand Theft Auto V and Red Dead Redemption 2 launched at $60 a few years ago.
Of course, considering inflation, $60 in 2013 is equivalent to about $85 today. But even adjusted for inflation, if GTA6 is as successful as everyone expects, its launch sales could be even higher. And it is certain that when Take-Two finally releases GTA6's sales data, they will spare no effort and use every means possible to present the data in the most perfect way.
Data So Far
Since pre-orders opened in June, neither Rockstar nor its parent company Take-Two has officially released any pre-order quantities or sales forecasts. Take-Two President Strauss Zelnick stated that releasing pre-order data would be unwise, as such data could be misleading. His reasoning is that, strictly speaking, not a single copy of GTA6 has been sold yet, since theoretically, all pre-ordered games can be returned. Of course, this argument is absurd; Zelnick seems to be sticking to his usual style—never announcing success before it happens.
In any case, Zelnick stated that GTA6's pre-orders "far" exceeded international expectations, but he did not specify what these expectations were or whether they "meant anything."
Zelnick stated that sharing the real raw pre-order data for GTA6 could mislead investors, so Take-Two will not do so.
Zelnick said, "I reminded everyone that we simply don't know how the demand curve will change, because this situation has never happened before. Given this, we believe raw data could be misleading, and the direction of this misleads us concerns us."
During Take-Two's recent earnings call, Zelnick discussed GTA6's pre-order numbers, saying, "Take-Two and the entire industry have never seen anything like this." He added, "It should be noted that we haven't sold a single copy yet. You can cancel your pre-order."
Will First-Week Budget Reach $2 Billion?
Market research firm Sensor Tower has launched a website called the "GTA6 Sales Tracker," which displays estimated pre-order figures for GTA6. As of October 13, pre-orders reached 6.08 million copies, apparently including all orders subject to return/refund. The agency estimates that GTA6 has generated $594 million in revenue so far, with PS5 accounting for 74% and Xbox Series X|S for 26%.
Karl Kontus of Sensor Tower stated in an interview that GTA6's pre-orders at launch could reach around 25 million copies, which would be an "unprecedented pre-order achievement."
He stated that if pre-orders reach 25 million copies, total revenue would be approximately $2 billion, enough to cover the game's development budget and most marketing costs. Kontus also predicted that the majority of GTA6 pre-orders would concentrate in the final week before launch, when hype peaks. Sensor Tower noted that the $100 version currently accounts for a slightly higher proportion of pre-orders, which is understandable since early pre-orderers are likely loyal fans. Sensor Tower expects that by launch, the number of pre-orders for the $80 and $100 versions will be roughly equal.
Launch Is Just the Beginning
GTA6 is currently marketed as a console-exclusive single-player experience. While this appears to be the case for now, everyone expects Rockstar to launch the next generation of GTA Online for GTA6 and eventually port it to PC. A recent report suggests that the PC version might be released earlier than expected.
A recent report from Jefferies Investment Bank pointed out that as of October 16, Take-Two's stock is trading at a discount at around $200 per share and is expected to rise to $300 per share. The firm is bullish on Take-Two, not only because GTA6 is expected to be a huge success, but also because the next generation of GTA Online will become a new revenue source, and the upcoming PC version will open a new sales cycle.
These are not mere fantasies. After all, GTA Online continues to generate steady income for Take-Two through various microtransactions and the GTA+ subscription service. Therefore, it is reasonable to believe that Rockstar will further refine GTA Online in GTA6 and create more ways for players to spend time (and money) in the game world. As for the PC version, if players prefer the PC platform, GTA Online will naturally encourage them to choose the PC version, potentially making them "double beneficiaries" and further increasing Take-Two's revenue.
A Different Console Market
Grand Theft Auto V was released near the end of the PS3 and Xbox 360 lifecycle, which undoubtedly created a unique market environment that greatly enhanced the game's sales potential. The combined install base of these two consoles exceeded 150 million units, meaning Rockstar had a massive market. As mentioned above, GTA V performed exceptionally well in this environment.
Rockstar initially released the game on these platforms, then subsequently ported it to PS4 and Xbox One, and later to PS5 and Xbox Series X|S in the following years, with continuous improvements. Although free upgrades were available in some cases, meaning players didn't have to pay again, it is certain that many players purchased the game multiple times.
The release of GTA6 comes at a time when the console market is vastly different from before. Due to tariffs, AI-driven memory and component demands, the war in Iran, and various other global macroeconomic factors driving up prices, the PS5 and Xbox Series X|S are now more expensive than ever. With PS5 sales exceeding 95 million units and estimated Xbox Series X|S sales at about one-third of that, the combined total for both consoles likely surpasses 120 million units.
What About the Long Term?
If GTA6 outsells Grand Theft Auto V in the initial launch period, it doesn't mean it will ultimately catch up to GTA V. GTA V has sold over 230 million copies, thanks to the unique model mentioned above. Additionally, when this game was released, the market had not yet seen the current "service game black holes," such as Fortnite and Roblox, which are devouring players' time and money.
Although the PS6 and Xbox's Project Helix series consoles have attracted much attention, reports suggest that these platforms might be delayed due to the complex and tricky issues mentioned above. However, regardless of when the next-generation PlayStation and Xbox consoles launch, we can almost certainly expect GTA6 to eventually be ported to these platforms.
As for the massive Switch 2 market, GTA6 has not yet been announced for Nintendo platforms. However, this possibility cannot be entirely ruled out, as reports suggest Rockstar has conducted related tests—though these may have been just tests. The President of Nintendo of America advised players to ask Rockstar for information regarding a Switch 2 version of GTA6.
Another issue facing GTA6 is that, due to the market factors mentioned above, the console generation cycle is much longer than before. Therefore, although Rockstar has been able to port Grand Theft Auto V to new platforms every few years and profit from it, this may become more challenging in the future.
Despite these potential disadvantages, I believe the next generation of GTA Online will become a true powerhouse, eventually surpassing the main game. First, I expect Rockstar to heavily invest in user-generated content and build a larger, richer world for GTA Online, giving players more things to do and more reasons to keep playing. In turn, this will create more profit opportunities for Rockstar and help build its own metaverse. Hopefully, Rockstar will announce news about GTA Online 2.0 soon.
GTA6 is a must-have game for many, but for those still hesitant, without a console, or looking for a new one, spending $600 on a base PS5 or $500 on a Series S might come as a shock.