Citigroup speculates that if Rockstar's claim that GTA VI's development cost did not reach $1.5 billion is true, the next Red Dead Redemption game could arrive sooner than expected, with a 2027 or 2028 release being "not unreasonable." However, this is not a product announcement from Rockstar, and the timeline remains merely a financial institution's prediction.
Rockstar's past major releases have had long intervals:
Red Dead Redemption was released in 2010
Grand Theft Auto V was released in 2013
Red Dead Redemption 2 was released in 2018
GTA VI is scheduled for release in 2026
This development pace also casts doubt on the 2027 or 2028 predictions.
Rockstar attempted to develop GTA VI and Red Dead Redemption 2 simultaneously but later considered the plan too aggressive, shifting resources from the former to the latter. Currently, the company typically has multiple offices working together on a single project before moving on to the next. Post-launch support for GTA VI and the next phase of its online experience may continue to consume resources, although Rockstar has not yet announced its online operation plans.
On the other hand, personnel from Take-Two and Rockstar have stated that new organizational structures, hiring, and technology stack upgrades are expected to shorten some development cycles without compromising quality. With Red Dead Redemption 2 having accumulated sales of 87 million copies, a sequel is therefore seen as a relatively safe long-term direction, but the specific timeframe of 2027 or 2028 has not been officially confirmed.
GameSpot detailed report:
Investment bank and financial services company Citigroup released a report on GTA VI and Rockstar, which included a mention of Rockstar's next potential title—a new Red Dead Redemption game.
In a memo, Citigroup stated that if Rockstar's claimed development cost for GTA VI did not actually reach $1.5 billion, the studio might release a new Red Dead Redemption game sooner than people imagine.
According to Yahoo Finance, Citigroup believes that releasing a new Red Dead Redemption game in 2027 or 2028 is "not unreasonable."
However, this is merely Citigroup's assessment. For various reasons, it would still be extremely surprising if a new Red Dead Redemption game were released as early as next year.
Historically, Rockstar's major titles are usually separated by several years, with even longer intervals between different entries in the same series. For example, Red Dead Redemption was released in 2010, followed by Grand Theft Auto V in 2013, Red Dead Redemption 2 in 2018, and GTA VI is scheduled for 2026.
Another important factor to consider is Rockstar's current approach to game development. The company previously attempted to develop GTA VI and Red Dead Redemption 2 simultaneously. Rockstar stated that if this model had been successfully implemented, the release of GTA VI could have been advanced by several years. However, Rockstar deemed the plan too ambitious, and studio head Rob Nelson ultimately decided to shift staff from the GTA VI project to Red Dead Redemption 2 to help complete and launch the latter.
Rockstar once had multiple offices developing several games simultaneously, but now, teams across Rockstar collaborate on a single project before moving on to the next one.
GTA VI may be launching soon, but it is certain that Rockstar has invested significant resources in preparing for post-launch support, not even accounting for the next phase of GTA Online. Although Rockstar has not announced any plans for online content support for GTA VI, it is widely expected that GTA VI will offer some form of massive online experience and receive support for many years to come.
Meanwhile, companies like Rockstar are undoubtedly already planning for the future, and releasing a new Red Dead Redemption game seems like a very safe choice. After all, Red Dead Redemption 2 has sold an astonishing 87 million copies, placing it among the best-selling games of all time.
Although Citigroup's prediction that Rockstar might release a new Red Dead Redemption game in 2027 or 2028 may be overly ambitious or even wishful thinking, both Rockstar and its parent company Take-Two have stated that they have established a new development structure to accelerate game production.
Take-Two CEO Strauss Zelnick told The Game Business that people should not "confuse long development cycles with a casual attitude toward development timelines."
Some games are "extremely complex and challenging to develop," thus indeed requiring a long time to complete. However, Zelnick stated that "recent technological developments" might help Take-Two's studios "shorten some development times without sacrificing quality."
The technological advancements mentioned by Zelnick may include Take-Two's application of artificial intelligence, but this remains uncertain. Meanwhile, Rockstar's Phil Hooker stated that the company's large-scale hiring and technology stack updates should help Rockstar increase game development speed in the future.
However, it should be noted that Zelnick and Hooker's statements about accelerating game production may primarily be aimed at analysts and investors. Whether Rockstar truly needs another eight years after the release of GTA VI to publish its next game remains to be seen. For now, these are merely statements.