Economist José García Montalvo estimates that up to 1.5 million American employees could miss work on the release day of GTA VI to play the game, with potential losses from decreased productivity amounting to approximately $1 billion. This estimate assumes a release date of November 19, 2026, and the impact is expected to be concentrated among males aged 18 to 30 and those in the tech industry.
Beyond taking direct leave, staying up all night to play, watching live streams, and participating in discussions may also affect employee performance the following day. However, the figures of 1.5 million people and $1 billion are pre-release projections; the $1 billion represents hypothetical productivity losses and does not mean the U.S. economy will necessarily incur an equivalent amount in direct losses at that time.
For reference, after Grand Theft Auto V was released in 2013, up to 6% of employees aged 18 to 35 in some U.S. cities took leave. However, the actual impact of GTA VI remains difficult to predict accurately. California-based Burger Motorsports has informed customers that order processing and support speeds may slow down starting November 19, as some employees have scheduled time off for the game's launch.
Newzoo analysts also predict that GTA VI could sell at least 37 million copies in its first week, generating global revenue of $4.5 billion. These figures are also forecasts, and their realization will depend on various factors.