By 2030, physical games may no longer mean having a complete disc or cartridge inside the box. Two market analysts suggest that while physical packaging is likely to remain, the game media inside may gradually shift to download vouchers, with ownership and resale rights becoming key differentiators for players.
Perry Gresham, Data Lead at MIDiA Research, stated that figures in financial reports may exaggerate the decline in physical demand. PC and mobile gaming are almost entirely digital, with some games no longer receiving physical releases, and digital revenue often includes in-game purchases; meanwhile, second-hand physical game transactions are typically not included in publishers' financial reports.
A recent YouGov study shows that 51% of US console players generally prefer discs or cartridges, with permanent ownership being the most commonly cited reason for buying physical copies. Gresham predicts that as users who still purchase physical games place greater emphasis on ownership, resale, and collection, the decline of the physical market may slow down as it approaches 2030.
Changes in supply may precede the disappearance of demand. Sony plans to end disc production by 2028, but new PlayStation games will still be sold through retail channels, albeit in digital form. Omdia expects that in 2026, physical copies will still account for just under 40% of full game purchases on Nintendo platforms.
James McWhirter, Senior Analyst at Omdia, believes that Switch 2 game cards are costly to produce, and Key Cards can reduce per-unit costs while allowing publishers to adjust prices after release. Download-dependent versions also allow for later locking of production schedules, giving development teams more room for final adjustments.
The Switch 2 Key Card itself does not store game data, but it is not a one-time redemption code. After downloading the game, the card can still be lent or resold, and it does not require binding to a Nintendo eShop account. In contrast, once a boxed download code is redeemed, it becomes tied to a digital account, and the physical packaging no longer contains a transferable copy of the game.
The limitation of this approach is that the initial installation still relies on online game data, although data can be transferred locally between Switch 2 consoles. Analysts believe that in the future, regardless of whether purchases are physical or digital, factors such as offline playability, transferability, resale rights, and long-term accessibility will influence players' perceptions of ownership.