According to the latest storage market forecast from TrendForce, DRAM and NAND flash contract prices will continue to rise in the fourth quarter of 2026.
It is expected that the quarter-on-quarter increase in regular DRAM contract prices in the fourth quarter will be 10% to 15%. The overall DRAM price increase, including HBM, is projected to be 15% to 20%, while NAND flash contract prices are also expected to rise by 15% to 20%.
Contract prices are agreed upon between chip suppliers and major clients and do not equal retail prices. Although the retail price of memory modules or SSDs will not immediately rise by 20%, the increase in contract prices will eventually be passed on to end consumers.
TrendForce attributes the upward price pressure mainly to cloud service providers expanding their AI infrastructure purchases. Storage manufacturers are prioritizing the production of HBM, server DRAM, and enterprise storage products due to strong demand and high profit margins in these categories.
It is expected that the share of PC memory production capacity will further decline in 2027. Laptop and desktop PC manufacturers may respond by adjusting standard configurations, accepting higher component costs, or passing on part of the price increases to the final product prices.
The NAND market is showing more pronounced differentiation. Demand for enterprise SSDs is strong, with hyperscale customers purchasing large-capacity storage in bulk for AI datasets, inference systems, and cloud services. Price increases for enterprise hard drives are expected to be even greater.
Consumer-grade SSD suppliers have more flexible pricing, which may curb the price increase of M.2 products. Demand for eMMC and UFS remains relatively weak, and module manufacturers are also more cautious about purchasing bare wafers.
For PC buyers, high-capacity DDR5 memory modules and large-capacity SSDs are the categories most affected by production capacity allocation. If you have already determined the required capacity, it is recommended to compare current market prices and purchase as soon as possible.
Of course, the above figures are still forecasts rather than confirmed transactions. Weakening cloud service spending, new production capacity, or inventory adjustments could all change the outcome.