The Polymarket prediction market has provided current pricing for GTA VI's Metacritic media average score: there is a 96% probability that the game will ultimately score 90 or higher, but only a 22% chance of reaching 98 or higher. Market participants generally expect the title to land in the 90+ range, while being more cautious about its potential to reach 97–98.
Specifically, the probability of GTA VI scoring 92 or higher is 95%, 94 or higher is 88%, and 96 or higher is 75%. When the threshold rises to 97, the probability drops to 35%; further increasing it to 98 leaves only a 22% chance.
For comparison, GTA IV holds a Metacritic average score of 98, which remains the series' highest record to date. Therefore, predictions in the 98-point range have become a benchmark for whether GTA VI can match the series' record.
These figures come from user-participated prediction markets, not from scores already given by game media, nor do they represent confirmation of the game's quality by Rockstar Games, Metacritic, or professional analysis firms. These numbers will continue to change as trading continues and review embargoes lift, with the final average score still awaiting the release of official reviews.