Daniel Robson, a journalist who has long covered the Japanese gaming market, believes that while GTA 6 is likely to achieve high rankings upon release, it may not dominate Japan's sales charts long-term as it does in other regions. The installed base of PS5s and Nintendo's platform dominance locally are the main obstacles in his assessment.
Robson acknowledges that GTA 6 is one of the most anticipated games in Japan for 2026. Past data shows that GTA V sold nearly 2 million copies locally, and GTA Online remains active thanks to the role-playing community Stogra.
Citing VGChartz data, the column states that cumulative PS5 sales across all models in Japan are slightly below 8 million units. Considering that some of these consoles may have entered China's gray market, Robson roughly estimates that around 6 million PS5s are actually in use in Japan. In comparison, the Switch 2 has sold approximately 6.4 million units in Japan in less than 18 months since its launch.
Japan's weekly all-platform charts are typically dominated by Switch, Switch 2, and domestic titles. Robson expects GTA 6 to achieve high rankings in its initial weeks, but whether it can maintain this position long-term remains uncertain; he also noted that Red Dead Redemption 2 only stayed in Japan's top 10 sales chart for two weeks back then.