Grand Theft Auto VI is scheduled for release this November, with widespread expectations that its launch sales will reach millions of copies and break records. However, ahead of the new title's release, publisher Take-Two's stock price has fallen by approximately 15% year-to-date, with a similar decline over the past year.
Over a longer period, Take-Two's stock price has risen by 39% over the past five years, compared to a 73% increase for the S&P 500 index during the same period. In 2007, the company's stock price was around $20; when Grand Theft Auto V was released in 2013, it was approximately $18, and it currently stands at around $215.
In January this year, after Google announced its Genie technology for game creation, the stock prices of gaming companies like Take-Two and Roblox were impacted. Take-Two had previously reached a 52-week high of $265, a level it has yet to recover to. Rhys Elliott, an analyst at Alinea Analytics, believes that the market is sensitive to news in the gaming industry, and Take-Two's high P/E ratio amplifies short-term volatility.
Commercial expectations surrounding Grand Theft Auto VI remain high. Reports indicate that pre-orders for the game have already exceeded 5 million copies, generating over $500 million in revenue; by the time of its official release, pre-orders could reach 25 million copies, with revenue hitting $2 billion. However, these expectations have not yet translated into upward momentum for Take-Two's stock price.
Elliott also noted that the multiple previous leaks of Grand Theft Auto VI may have caused some investors to worry about the company losing control over its key products. Take-Two is currently investigating those responsible for the leaks, but no individuals have been confirmed yet. A major leak also occurred in 2022, and Take-Two later identified the person responsible.
Several banks maintain buy ratings for Take-Two stock. JPMorgan has set a target price of $310, Bank of America $368, and Wells Fargo analysts $293. Rockstar and Take-Two have currently only publicly introduced the single-player mode of Grand Theft Auto VI, positioning it as a single-player experience, and have not yet officially announced the corresponding online multiplayer mode.