Over the past few years, the PC industry has gradually transitioned from DDR4 to DDR5, making considerable progress. The three major manufacturers—Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron—have also been phasing out DDR4 production, redirecting capacity toward more profitable DDR5 and HBM products. However, as DRAM shortages and skyrocketing prices intensified over the past year, this trend began to shift. Entering 2026, a reversal has even occurred, with more users opting for DDR4 memory due to its relatively smaller price increases and lower system build costs.
According to Wccftech, overall storage production capacity is being squeezed, with DDR4 and SLC NAND flash likely to be the next significantly affected. Market research firms indicate that as memory manufacturers continue shifting capacity toward HBM, DDR5, and higher-layer NAND flash, DDR4 prices are expected to rise by 50% in Q3 2026, followed by another increase of over 10% in Q4. Meanwhile, SLC NAND flash prices are projected to surge by more than 50% consecutively in Q3 and Q4, potentially leading to supply shortages.
As is well known, HBM production consumes approximately three times the wafer capacity of traditional DRAM. Demand for HBM continues to grow, with market research firms estimating that NVIDIA alone will consume around 25.1 billion Gb of HBM in 2027, bringing the industry-wide total to approximately 61.5 billion Gb.
Meanwhile, the upward trend for DDR5 shows no signs of stopping. In August, spot prices for DDR5-5600/6400 24GB memory modules rose another 8%, marking a 483% increase compared to the same period last year. At that time, chip prices for these modules hovered around $8, but they have since surged dramatically, now approaching $47. DDR5 prices are expected to remain high in the near future without any significant decline.