According to the latest data from TrendForce, the tight supply of laptop CPUs will significantly ease starting in Q2 2026, allowing brand manufacturers' procurement and production rhythms to gradually return to normal.
Meanwhile, considering the continuous rise in DRAM and SSD costs, brands are more inclined to stock up in advance and lock in component supplies, leading to better-than-expected shipment performance in the first half of the year.
However, the upward trend in memory prices shows no signs of slowing down. Coupled with simultaneous CPU price increases, brands are facing expanding cost pressures.
TrendForce points out that in the second half of 2026, as CPU shortages continue to ease and brands maintain strong momentum in advance stocking, combined with factors such as earlier consumer replacement cycles and stable business demand, the annual decline in notebook shipments is expected to narrow to 9.4%.
To quantify the impact of rising component prices on cost structures, TrendForce used a mainstream model with a suggested retail price (MSRP) of $900 in Q1 2025 (a period of relatively stable memory supply) as a baseline. At that time, core components such as CPUs, DRAM, and SSDs accounted for approximately 45% of the BOM cost.
After more than a year of price increases, the share of these three components rose to 68% by Q3 2026, indicating that memory and CPUs are rapidly reshaping the cost structure of notebooks.
From the perspective of brand gross margins, due to the quarterly increases in CPU, DRAM, and SSD prices, it is estimated that by Q3 2026, brands will need to raise product prices by 80% compared to Q1 2025 levels to maintain the same gross margin.
This means that the impact of rising component prices on end-user pricing has evolved from a mere cost burden into direct pressure driving significant price hikes.
